2023: Two-year Impact Factor: 2.4
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CiteScore (2024):5.2
Open Access

Health Promot Perspect. 2024;14(1): 53-60.
doi: 10.34172/hpp.42452
PMID: 38623351
PMCID: PMC11016142
  Abstract View: 383
  PDF Download: 422

Original Article

Estimated reductions in type 2 diabetes burden through nutrition policies in AZAR cohort population: A PRIME microsimulation study for primary health care

Samira Pourmoradian 1 ORCID logo, Naser Kalantari 2* ORCID logo, Hassan Eini-Zinab 1, Alireza Ostadrahimi 3, Jafar Sadegh Tabrizi 4, Elnaz Faramarzi 5

1 Nutrition Research Center, Department of Community Nutrition, Faculty of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
2 Department of Community Nutrition, National Nutrition and Food Technology Research Institute, Faculty of Nutrition Sciences and Food Technology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
3 Nutrition Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
4 Department of Health Service Management, Tabriz Health Service Management Research Centre, School of Health Management and Medical Informatics, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
5 Liver and Gastrointestinal Diseases Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
*Corresponding Author: Naser Kalantari, Email: nkalantari1334@gmail.com


Background: Given the impact of high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages on type 2 diabetes, intervention to reduce their consumption can be a top priority for any health system. Thus, the purpose of the present study is to simulate the impact of policy options related to reduce consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on the prevalence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Iranian men and women.

Methods: A discrete event simulation (DES) model was used to predict the effect of several policy options on the prevalence and death from type 2 diabetes in Azar Cohort Databases. Population age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence rate of diagnosed diabetes were derived from the national health data. The Preventable Risk Integrated Model (PRIME) model was used for coding the input parameters of simulation using R and Python software.

Results: The prevalence and mortality rate of type 2 diabetes under the scenario of reduced consumption of SSBs indicated that the highest and the lowest prevalence and mortality rates of type 2 diabetes for men and women were related to no policy condition and replacing SSBs with healthy drinks, like water, respectively. Also, the maximum “number of deaths postponed/ prevented” from type 2 diabetes was related to replacing SSBs with water (n=2015), and an integration of reformulation and applying 10% tax on SSBs (n=1872), respectively.

Conclusion: Simulating the effect of different policy options on reducing the consumption of SSBs showed “replacing of SSBs with water” as the most effective policy option in Iranian setting.

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Submitted: 16 Aug 2023
Accepted: 19 Feb 2024
ePublished: 14 Mar 2024
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